Everything you need to bet smarter. No fluff, no gimmicks.
American Odds (Moneyline)
- Positive (+150): How much you win on a $100 bet. +150 means $100 wins $150.
- Negative (-110): How much you need to bet to win $100. -110 means $110 wins $100.
Decimal Odds
Multiply your stake by the decimal to get your total return. 2.50 odds on a $100 bet = $250 total ($150 profit).
Implied Probability Formula
•For negative odds: Probability = |odds| / (|odds| + 100)
•Example: -150 → 150 / 250 = 60%
•For positive odds: Probability = 100 / (odds + 100)
•Example: +200 → 100 / 300 = 33.3%
The gap between implied probability and your estimated probability is where value lives.
Your bankroll is the total amount you've set aside exclusively for betting. Protecting it is rule #1.
Unit Sizing
•1 unit = 1-3% of your total bankroll
•If your bankroll is $1,000, one unit is $10-$30
•Never risk more than 5% on a single bet, regardless of confidence
The Golden Rules
1. Never chase losses. A losing streak doesn't mean the next bet is "due." Each bet is independent.
2. Set a daily/weekly stop-loss. If you lose 3-5 units in a day, walk away.
3. Don't increase unit size after wins. Recalculate units monthly based on your bankroll, not emotionally after a hot streak.
4. Track everything. You can't improve what you don't measure.
Flat betting (same unit on every play) is the safest approach for most bettors. Only increase sizing if your long-term data supports it.
Moneyline (ML)
Bet on which team wins straight up. No spread involved. Favorites have negative odds, underdogs have positive.
Point Spread
The favorite must win by more than the spread. Lakers -4.5 means they need to win by 5+. The underdog "covers" if they lose by less than the spread or win outright.
Over/Under (Totals)
Bet on whether the combined score goes over or under a set number. O/U 215.5 — you bet the total lands above or below that.
Player Props
Bet on individual player performance: points, assists, rebounds, etc. Example: "LeBron Over 25.5 points."
Parlays
Combine multiple bets into one ticket. All legs must hit. Higher payouts but significantly lower win probability. A 4-leg parlay at -110 each has roughly a 6% chance of hitting.
Same Game Parlays (SGPs)
Multiple props/markets from the same game combined. Sportsbooks love these because correlation between legs increases the house edge.
Value betting means finding odds that underestimate the true probability of an outcome.
Edge% Formula
Edge = (Your estimated probability × decimal odds) - 1
•If your model says a team wins 55% of the time and the odds imply 50% (+100 / 2.00):
- Edge = (0.55 × 2.00) - 1 = 0.10 = +10% edge
Line Shopping
Different sportsbooks offer different odds on the same event. Getting -108 instead of -110 saves you money over hundreds of bets. BetMetrics shows you the best line across books — use it.
CLV (Closing Line Value)
The closing line is the final odds before a game starts, considered the most accurate. If you consistently beat the closing line, you're a winning bettor long-term — even if individual results vary.
How BetMetrics Helps
•Compare odds across 10+ sportsbooks instantly
•Spot line discrepancies that create value
•Track your CLV over time
•Get alerts when lines move significantly
1. Chasing Losses
After a bad day, the urge to "make it back" leads to larger, riskier bets. This is the fastest way to blow a bankroll. Stick to your unit size.
2. The Parlay Trap
Parlays are fun but mathematically brutal. The house edge compounds with each leg. A 5-leg parlay at -110 each has an implied probability of ~3% but you're giving the book ~15% edge. Stick to straight bets for consistent profit.
3. Public Bias
Sportsbooks shade lines toward popular teams and overs. When 80% of the public is on one side, the line has already moved to account for it. Fading the public isn't always right, but being aware of it matters.
4. Ignoring Rest & Scheduling
Back-to-backs, travel, and rest days significantly impact NBA performance. A team on a 4th game in 5 nights is at a real disadvantage that the public often ignores.
5. Betting Every Game
Not every game has value. The best bettors pass on more games than they bet. Discipline > volume.
6. Emotional Betting
Betting on your favorite team or against a team you hate introduces bias. Make decisions with data, not feelings.
- Vig (Vigorish/Juice): The sportsbook's commission. Standard is -110 on both sides, meaning the book takes ~4.5% on every bet.
- Sharp: A professional or highly skilled bettor whose action moves lines.
- Square: A recreational bettor who typically bets public favorites and parlays.
- Steam Move: A sudden, significant line movement caused by sharp money hitting multiple books simultaneously.
- CLV (Closing Line Value): The difference between your bet price and the closing line. Consistently positive CLV = long-term winner.
- Handle: The total amount wagered on an event across all bettors.
- ATS (Against the Spread): A team's record when accounting for the point spread.
- Push: A bet that lands exactly on the number, resulting in a refund.
- Chalk: The favorite in a matchup.
- Dog: The underdog.
- Hedge: Placing a bet on the opposite side to guarantee profit or reduce risk.
- Tout: Someone who sells betting picks. Most are not profitable long-term.
- Unit: A standardized bet size (typically 1-3% of bankroll).
- ROI (Return on Investment): (Profit / Total Wagered) x 100. A +5% ROI over 500+ bets is excellent.
- Expected Value (EV): The average amount you expect to win/lose per bet over time. Positive EV bets are the goal.